What are the top legal challenges and opportunities for the next 12 months in Spain…
1. … for developers of renewable generation assets?
While there is still significant potential for renewable energy assets in Spain -particularly as the country advances in decarbonising its economy through the increase of renewable generation- it is essential to expand and enhance both the transmission and distribution grids. This is necessary to evacuate all produced energy, avoid curtailments, and support the growth of Spain's renewable energy mix.
Developers face challenges such as: (i) the lack of access capacity tenders (concursos de capacidad); and (ii) the decline of energy prices for both RTB and COD projects, driven by the low electricity prices in Spain, which, in turn, have been caused by renewable technology cannibalisation, particularly in relation to solar production. These issues have resulted in lower-than-expected returns on investment, difficulties in project financing, and a decline in both M&A transactions involving renewable assets and their valuation, with solar energy production being more significantly impacted than wind energy projects.
Despite these obstacles, opportunities are emerging for renewable generation assets. These include: (i) the signing of PPAs, which provide price certainty for energy sales and purchases; (ii) the hybridisation of renewable generation assets with battery energy storage systems (BESS), which improves asset efficiency, manageability and investment attractiveness; and (iii) the potential to construct assets and procure equipment (such as solar panels) at reduced costs. Additionally, with the approval of the future Spanish capacity market, developers will obtain new revenue streams that could further increase investment efforts.
2. … for developers of traditional / baseload generation assets?
The main challenge for developers of traditional / baseload generation assets is their gradual displacement by newer and less polluting technologies aligned with national and European climate change policies. These include green hydrogen, biomethane and BESS, among others. Particular attention has been given to the closure of coal-fired power plants. Additionally, the Spanish government has set a target to close all nuclear plants by 2035 and does not currently anticipate the construction of new combined cycle plants.
Moreover, the increase of the price of natural gas, higher costs for CO2 emission allowances and the increase of taxation on these assets are making energy production increasingly expensive, further hindering their operation. Furthermore, these rising costs result in higher electricity prices during the hours of the day when renewable energy generators supply less energy to the grid, potentially driving industrial offshoring.
However, the major black-out of 28 April 2025 in Spain could lead to a change in the Spanish government's stance on certain traditional technologies, particularly nuclear and combined cycle plants, which may find new opportunities. These technologies are expected to be regulated as backup solutions to ensure system stability, potentially benefiting from capacity market payments.
This shift highlights the evolving role of traditional generation assets in supporting the energy transition, ensuring reliability while complementing the growth of cleaner technologies.